Copa Mundial - Donde Estamos?

For those of you who don't speak Spanish, the title means (roughly) "World Cup - Where are We?" Again, that might not be conjugated correctly, but you get the point. Every team has played two matches, and the round of 16 is beginning to take shape. A lot of teams have already booked their tickets, some for the next round, some for home. Tonight, we're going to run through all the groups and figure out what's what, and what needs to happen in the next set of matches to fill out the bracket.

While we're at it, we are also going to be keeping tabs on Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Finals. My Oilers have forced a final, decisive game after being down 3-1 in the series. WE are just underway from Raleigh. The fact that Raleigh is hosting the biggest game in professional hockey is slightly disturbing and confounding, but hey, it's better than Durham.

I'm not quite ready to discuss the US Open. Mickelson's meltdown was pretty tough to take. Congrats to Ogilvy, who won the Open with his chip in for par on 17. That, and not hitting the corporate tent with his drive on 18.

Wow! With just over a minute played, the Hurricanes have taken a 1-0 lead. I've got a feeling this could end up being a 5-4 type game.

On to the Coupe du Monde - we're going tri-lingual -

Group A

1. Ecuador (2-0-0, 6 points)
2. Germany (2-0-0, 6)
3. Poland (0-0-2, 0)
4. Costa Rica (0-0-2, 0)

This group is pretty straightforward. Ecuador and Germany are through, the Poles and the Ticos are going home. Fortunately for Poland, it's not a long trip. Ecuador currently has the edge over Germany due to goal differential, but that could change when the two teams meet Tuesday. First place is important because the winner most likely avoids England in the round of 16. I, along with most other pundits (although I hardly consider myself a "pundit"), underestimated Ecuador. I mean, it's a tiny country right? They can't be that good. Or so I thought. Apparently, they'd never won a match outside of Quito, or something ridiculous like that. I went to high school with a guy named Kito, and he played soccer. So, I should have picked the Ecuadorians. Instead, I drank the Polish Kool-Aid - never a good decision.

Group B

1. England (2-0-0, 6)
2. Sweden (1-1-0, 4)
3. Trinidad & Tobago (0-1-1, 1)
4. Paraguay (0-0-2, 0)

England has advanced despite being "complete pants" as Michael Davies (and apparently all Brits) would say. Of course, whether you are pants or not, advancing means you got a chance to win the whole thing, which is more than can be said for Paraguay. Amazing, T&T has a chance to advance. If Sweden loses and Trinidad wins, both teams will have four points. Sweden currently is +3 over T&T in goal differential, the tiebreaker, so a four goal swing would be necessary to push the Trinidadians and the Tobagans into the next round. Aside from my longstanding desire to meet a beautiful Swedish woman and marry her, I have no real concern for Sweden, so I'll be rooting hard for the Soca Warriors. For the record, if the US or the Dutch are not going to win the Cup, I'll be rooting for England. I mean, they've clearly got an enormous complex about becoming inferior to the United States in everything, and football is their last remaining hope. So, we'll let them keep it. For now. Eventually, we're going to take that from them too though. I'd even be willing to give them Maine or something as a trade.

Group C

1. Argentina (2-0-0, 6)
2. Netherlands (2-0-0, 6)
3. Ivory Coast (0-0-2, 0)
4. Serbia & Montenegro (0-0-2, 0)

Another group that's been decided. The Argentines have been the most impressive team in the entire tournament thus far, and the Dutch wear bright orange. The match between the two on Wednesday should be fantastic. I highly recommend watching live or recording so you can watch that evening. Both teams should be favored over whatever teams they face from Group D in the second round (Portugal and Mexico or Angola). Portugal has talent, but they consistently underachieve on the big stage. Of course, if I had to play Portugal or Angola, I'd rather play Angola naturally. Serbia & Montenegro suffered the worst loss of the tournament, 6-0, which is only slightly more humiliating than everyone referring to your country as S&M.

Group D

1. Portugal (2-0-0, 6)
2. Mexico (1-1-0, 4)
3. Angola (0-1-1, 1)
4. Iran (0-0-2, 0)

This is a lame group. Portugal are through to the round of 16, and without really playing anyone decent. Wins over Angola and Iran are hardly inspiring. Of course, they could be Mexico, who only managed a win and tie(Angola) against those same teams. Not surprisingly, Iran was a complete pushover, but I don't think anyone wanted to run the score up on them for fear of nuclear retaliation. Mexico and Portugal play next, and if Mexico loses Angola could sneak in with a big win over Iran. Angola is -3 in goal differential to Mexico, so we'd need another four goal swing. I certainly would love to see Portugal stick a 3 or 4-nil beating on the Mexicans. If Mexico wins, they win the group though.

1-0 Hurricanes after the first period. There was some controversy at the end of the period, the details of which I'm not totally sure of, since you know, it's hockey. It's been an exciting game so far. Both teams have had power plays, but couldn't convert. My Oilers will start the second period on the power play (that was part of the controversy).

Group E

1. Italy (1-1-0, 4)
2. Czech Republic (1-0-1, 3)
3. Ghana (1-0-1, 3)
4. United States (0-1-1, 1)

By far the most competitive group, Ghana's victory over the Czechs proved that this truly is the Group of Death. Some argued Group C, but any group with a 6-0 match can't be that hard. The United States, in last place, held Italy, in first place, scoreless for a half despite playing 9 on 10. This group is also the Group of Attrition. In the final matches of group play, Italy will be missing its defender De Rossi and starting midfielder Perrotta. The Czechs will be missing the top three strikers on their roster and one of its top defenders (this is good news for the US.). Ghana will be missing forward Asamoah Gyan, who scored against Czech Republic, who received his second yellow card of the tournament. And of course, the U.S. will be without Eddie Pope (good riddance) and Pablo Mastroeni. Mastroeni is a tough loss, but I think we'll replace him with John O'Brien in the defensive midfielder role. This guy Jimmy Conrad will probably fill in at the back, with Bocanegra and Onyewu in the middle and Cherundolo on the right.

The US went with Gurney's 4-5-1 against Italy, and it was working, right up until we lost one of the five. By working, I mean we controlled the midfield, but we still didn't actually score the ball ourselves. I thought maybe Arena would put in Eddie Johnson late against Italy for McBride, just to have someone chase the long balls down, but I guess he opted for McBride's experience. I think we may need Johnson to come in and finish a few.

That said, if we bring the energy and aggresiveness to the match that we did against Italy, I think we're in pretty good shape.

For us to advance, the best scenario would be Italy beating the Czechs and us defeating Ghana. That way, there'd be no tiebreakers and goal differential wouldn't be a factor. If we win and Italy ties CR, then we would have to win by by four. Probably not going to happen. (One note - I think I told someone that head to head was the first tiebreaker. This apparently is incorrect. The tiebreakers go 1) goal differential, 2) goals for, 3) head to head. This is important because it means we could tie CR in points but still advance, we'd just have to score at least four more goals the CR scores against Italy.) If CR beats Italy, we also still have a chance. Currently, Italy is +5 over us in differential, so it'd have to be a six goal swing. Not terribly likely, but two 3-0 games would produce the necessary result.

I won't go into much detail about the US - Italy game, but I will say that it is one of, if not the most impressive performance I've seen from our boys on the international stage. I'd put it right up there with the win over Colombia in 94, the win over Portugal in 02 and the loss to Germany in 02 (when we also kind of got screwed by the officials). I will say (warning: cheesy patriotic sentiment coming soon) that I've never been prouder of the US National Team than I was at the end of that match. We faced a top-notch opponent, an official who just seemed clueless (for both teams - I don't think he unfairly favored the Italians, I just think he's a moron), and a situation where we had to produce a result. To play a man down, 10 on 11 is hard, but manageable. I've been on teams that have won with only ten men. Heck, I've been on a team that's won 7 on 11, but it was a rec league game and the opponent wasn't what we'd call quality. But back to the point, to play a match with 10 men for 2/3rds of the game, and with only nine for half of it is really difficult. There is just so much space on the field. The last 15 minutes is was an all-out assault on our goal by the Italians, but the defense (led by my man Gooch) and Kasey Keller kept the Italians out of our net. We even scored a goal, but it was called back (correctly) for offsides.

Anyway, I like our chances to advance. Italy will want to play hard and win, because if they lose, they will most likely have to face Brazil in the round of 16. As I said earlier, if we play like we did against Italy, we should beat Ghana. Sure, we'd have to face Brazil, but I'd rather do that then have to go home. Plus, the Brazilians might overlook us like the Italians and you never know what might happen.

It's 2-0 Canes now with 9 minutes to go in the second period. My Oilers are going to need to get on the board before the end of the period I think. Then again, we like our backs against the wall, so maybe we're just luring Carolina into a false sense of security.

Group F (and these will be shorter, don't worry)

1. Brazil (2-0-0, 6)
2. Australia (1-0-1, 3)
3. Croatia (0-0-1, 1)
4. Japan (0-0-1, 1)

Another lame group. Brazil does not appear to have tried, but yet are through to the next round, and virtually assured of finishing atop the group. A question for Brazil coming in was its defense, but they have yet to allow a goal. Sure, it's been against crap teams, but still, two shutouts are two shutouts. You don't get that kind of analysis anywhere else, do you? Japan has the choke job of the tournament, leading Australia 1-0 into the 80th minute, then losing 3-1. I'm not even mad, that's just impressive. Croatia and Australia play, essentially to see who takes second place. Sure, Japan might beat Brazil, but I'd prefer not to live in Fantasy Land. I think I'm rooting for the Aussies, if only because we'll get to hear about the Socceroos for another few days. On the official World Cup site, there's a story where an Australian Formula One driver is confident the Socceroos can advance. Well, awesome. That's the kind of investigative reporting I love.

Group G

1. Switzerland (1-1-0, 4)
2. Korea (1-1-0, 4)
3. France (0-2-0, 2)
4. Togo (0-0-2, 0)

Unfortunately, the Togolese are done. Fortunately, France may be also. Of course, France still gets to play Togo, but will be without Zinedine Zidane. A win by France, which I can't imagine not happening, but you know it is the French, gives them five points. If there is a result (ie. not a draw) between the Swiss and the Koreans, France advances. If those teams tie, it comes down to tiebreakers, which, truthfully, France will probably win. Currently, the French are even in differential, but a win would put them at some positive number. Korea is currently +1 and Switzerland is +2. So, a 2 goal win by France and a tie between Korea and the Swiss puts France through and sends the Koreans packing. As you can see, there's still a lot up in the air in this group. That said, none of these teams will challenge for the Cup, so it doesn't really matter. But I'm rooting for Togo to continue the French humiliation at the World Cup.

We're at the second intermission with the Canes still leading 2-0. The Oilers had a 5-on-3 advantage late in the second period and couldn't capitalize. But, like I said after Game 4, we've got the Canes right where we want them.

Group H

1. Spain (2-0-0, 6)
2. Ukraine (1-0-1, 3)
3. Tunisia (0-1-1, 1)
4. Saudi Arabia (0-1-1, 1)

This group has been interesting to watch. A ton of goals have been scored, games you thought would be competitive weren't and the match no one wanted to watch turned out to have a can't miss finish. Spain destroyed Ukraine, 4-0, but just to prove it was in fact, not weak, the Ukraine beat Saudi Arabia 4-0 to take over second place in the group. Spain has steamrolled the group so far, winning both games and carrying a +6 goal differential. Spain gets to slaughter the Saudis in its last match of group play, and most likely will rest its top players for the next round. They have a +6 differential advantage on Ukraine, so dropping out of first place is a longshot. Spain might be able to contend for the Cup, but Ukraine won't. That said, it was Michael Davies' pre-tournament darkhorse, which I'm not sure means anything, but he's British so he probably knows more about football than I do.

Anyway, it should be an exciting few days. We move to four games a day for the next four days, as all the groups will finish by Friday. Here's the schedule (with notable games to watch highlighted). Times are east coast time (is there any other legitimate time zone?)

Tuesday -
10:00am
Ecuador - Germany (for first place in Group A)
Costa Rica - Poland (for possibly last place in the entire tournament)

3:00pm
Sweden - England (should be fun match. England plans to start Rooney and Owen up top. ANd there'll probably be some camera shots of Swedish babes.)
Paraguay - Trinidad & Tobago (Watch the Tobagoans party one more time)

One minute into the third, my Oilers have tied it up. And guess who scored? That's right, Pisani! Mon homme!

Wednesday -
10:00 am
Portugal - Mexico(root against the Mexicans!)
Iran - Angola (Root against the Terrorists!)

3:00pm
Holland - Argentina (possibly the best match of the first round. Definitely watch/Tivo)
Ivory Coast - S&M (eh...)

Thursday
10:00am
Italy - Czech Republic (Come on Italy!)
USA - Ghana (I might have to have a doctor's appointment around now)

3:00 pm
Japan - Brazil (The more Brazil doesn't have to try, the better our chances are against them in the second round)
Croatia - Australia (Surprisingly to me, there are a lot of dual citizens of these two countries. Who knew? Winner advances.)

Friday
10:00am
Spain - Saudi Arabia (can the Saudis top their record of allowing 8 goals in one game?)
Ukraine - Tunisia (once and for all, we'll discover if Ukraine is in fact weak.)

3:00pm
Togo - France (With a Togo win, the French can go back to doing what they do best, smelling bad and giving up)
Swiss - Korea (Seriously, the French are obnoxious, arrogant and smell bad. Talk about Lethal Weapon Three.)

Still 2-1 Carolina with 11 minutes to go.

I want to mention the Tar Heels. I mean, it's been a couple days since I talked about them, so you knew it was coming. But, for now, I'm not talking basketball. I'm talking baseball.

The Diamond Heels are in the College World Series are, for lack of a better term, balling. In our opening match (I mean game, I've been watching a lot of soccer), we beat Cal State-Fullerton, the 2004 National Champions. In the second game, Robert Woodard threw a three-hit shutout against Clemson, the top ranked team. Woodard, by the way, is our #3 pitcher. Our top two were drafted in the first round of the recent MLB draft.

Anyway, we now await the winner of the Cal State - Clemson game. If we win that, we'll advance to the championship. If we lose that, we rerack because it's a double elimination tournament.

I'm thinking we'll throw Daniel Bard (the 24th pick) and his 95-mph gas in the next game. That way, if we win, we have Andrew Miller (the 6th pick) for the championship game and if we lose, we have him ready for the elimination game and then will have Woodard for the championship.

Regardless, it's been a fantastic season for the Heels, and hopefully they can bring hopme a title. I think my buddy Lawrence is attending some of the games, so I might try to get his take from Omaha and relay it to the Hangover Nation.

(Penalty against Carolina with 7:22 to play. Come on Oilers!)

Since we're talking about the Heels and someone mentioned a draft, I wanted to relay this tidbit of information. At the NBA pre-draft camp, all the eligible draftees undergo testing to determine the best athletes. Tests include the vertical jump, pull-ups, bench press a sprint and some sort of shuttle run. Anyway, according to Chad Ford, guess who tested as the top athlete? That's right, David Noel. (that link is to an Insider page on ESPN.com so I'm sure if you'll be able to read it.) David probably won't get drafted, but he's still the man. It's generally accepted that the NBA has the best athletes of all the pro leagues, and Noel is the top athlete looking to join the league this year. Pretty impressive. And when he's scoring touchdowns in the Super Bowl, everyone will realize how sick of an athlete he really is. Hooray for David!

Well, three minutes remain, so I'll try to keep up as we finish up.

Carolina has called a timeout with 3:04 left and leading 2-1. The Oilers have had the better of play in the third period. Face off to come in the Canes zone. Should be a frantic finish.

2:30 - big shot by Oilers misses wide.

2:00 - oiler puck trying to mount a charge but cut off by Carolina. They're just playing defense. Good chance for Emdonton but just missed. Puck cleared with 1:35 left. Oilers pull goalie. Whistle.

Geez, I'm exhausted. Ok, 1:14 left. Face off in Carolina zone. Goalie has been pulled. So, it'll be 6-on-5 and will be an Italy-esque assualt on the Carolina goal for final minute. The Canes will probably pack it in in front of the net.

Face off won by Edmonton. After a scrum, Carolina takes the puck and finishes in the empy net with 1:01 left. The Cup is almost assuredly going to reside in Raleigh, and you know what that means. A two year strike so they can abolish all Southeastern hockey teams.

With 20 seconds left, a fight has broken out. Well done by the Oilers. If you can't win, at least get a few good punches in. I fully support this. There appears to be some sort of penalty involved.

The announcer just told a story about a Carolina defender who took a head shot in a previous game, went to the locker room, threw up for a while, then finished the game, but doesn't remember any of it. He wanted to return to the game so he wouldn't be required to have testing done the following day to determine the severity of the concussion. Hockey players are ridiculous.

It's over, and the hated Canes have won the Stanley Cup. You can be sure Lord Stanley is rolling over so much in his grave that he's going to be vomitting more than the Carolina defender.

The announcer just said, "The group in red hardly knows what to do." No kidding. The only thing anyone in Raleigh has won is a John Deere tractor race. You think they know what to do when they win a championship in Ice Hockey. Now, Queen is blasting from the speakers of the RBC Center. I'll tell you this much, that music will never be played while Sidney Lowe is running the show for the Wolfpack. That much I know.

All right, enjoy the World Cup the next few days. At some point Friday after the brackets are set for the elimination round, I'll put my picks up, so know to check back on the weekend. For the rest of this week, I'll give some thoughts on each day's action but also will try to give some time to the NBA Finals and maybe even some baseball.